2022 Election
November 21, 2022 — Scott Johnson
It takes 218 seats to claim a the majority in the House of Representatives, which is itself an entirely majoritarian institution. It’s no fun to be in the minority in the House, as Democrats are about to be reminded. It appears that the prospective Republican majority in the House will max out at 221 or 222 members. We are still awaiting results in three California races. RCP still shows Lauren
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November 19, 2022 — Scott Johnson
Commenting on the midterms, I relied on Robert Cahaly’s Trafalgar polls to moderate my native pessimism. As I noted in “Trafalgar in retrospect,” I’m still kicking myself for that and for having advertised his polls to readers. What does Cahaly himself say? He spoke with New York Intelligencer’s Benjamin Hart this week for this interview. As I read the interview, he sounds grouchy and defensive, but I understand this much:
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November 18, 2022 — Steven Hayward
Maybe the news of massive layoffs at at leading Silicon Valley tech companies is good news for the Republican Party. Herewith:
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November 18, 2022 — Scott Johnson
Ammo Grrrll advises LET’S GET A GRIP! She writes: Long-married people may theologically be “one,” but as any Marriage Counselor will tell you, they are also two extremely separate individuals. Since famous novelist, Max Cossack and I are both hard-core political junkies, we have been discussing the latest election more or less non-stop for a week. Though I am the Columnist of Record and hence will be writing in the
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November 17, 2022 — John Hinderaker
Kendall Witmer is a Democratic political operative who describes herself as “comms director” for Minnesota Governor Tim Walz’s re-election campaign. This is a photo of Witmer (center) with Walz, from Witmer’s Twitter feed: This is how Witmer celebrated her client’s re-election win. Her tweet is directed at Republican Lieutenant Governor candidate Matt Birk, former All-Pro football player for the Minnesota Vikings: I’ll have something more coherent at some point but
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November 17, 2022 — Scott Johnson
Ryan Girdusky appeared for an interview on a segment of the Clay and Buck radio talk show yesterday. The interview is posted here at the show’s site. I had never heard of Girdusky and can’t vouch for him. These were Girdusky’s opening points: [T]here was no youthquake. The media has had this narrative coming out that there was this giant army of young Gen Z people voting Democrat — didn’t
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November 17, 2022 — Scott Johnson
When Dr. Oz narrowly won the Pennsylvania Republican primary — by fewer than 1,000 votes — I lamented the result in “Oz versus Fetterman.” I blamed Trump for an endorsement that, given the closeness of the race, must have pushed Oz over the top. I thought former Trump Treasury Under Secretary David McCormick, Oz’s opponent in the primary, made for a far better candidate against John Fetterman in Pennsylvania’s general
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November 16, 2022 — Scott Johnson
As we anticipated this morning, the AP has just called Republican Rep. Mike Garcia’s tough race for reelection against Christy Smith in California’s Twenty-Seventh Congressional District. The AP has called the race for Garcia (in a “Democratic-leaning district,” as the AP puts it.) Yesterday the LA Times noted that Smith has been complaining of the lock of party support on Twitter. Garcia’s election flips the House by pushing the Republicans
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November 16, 2022 — Scott Johnson
An outlet called Decision Desk HQ has called two races bringing the GOP total in the House of Representatives to 219. Who is Decision Desk HQ and why are they calling these races? RedState’s Mr. Bonchie (Republican Kevin Kiley in California’s Third CD) and Hot Air’s John Sexton (Republican Mike Garcia in California’s Twenty-Seventh CD) have followed DDHQ on these calls. Kiley’s putative victory would take the GOP to a
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November 15, 2022 — Scott Johnson
John Sexton updates five House races that were called yesterday for the GOP here at Hot Air. The AP story here includes quick takes on a few close California House races that hang in the balance. By the end of the day the GOP total stood at 217, one away from a majority. Democrats stand at 205. Two of the five GOP wins (David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani) reflected close
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November 14, 2022 — Scott Johnson
Tom Bevan is president of RealClearPolitics and a real clear observer of the American political scene. He has posted a thread on the results of the midterm elections on Twitter. There is a lot to chew over here. I submit it to interested readers at the bottom of this post. Tom tactfully observes that Republicans “will gain only a handful of House seats…” He leaves open the question whether Republicans
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November 13, 2022 — John Hinderaker
Obviously, the midterms were bitterly disappointing. I moderated a panel on the election yesterday at David Horowitz’s Restoration Weekend. I began by saying that in view of the midterm results, we had changed the title of the panel from “What Happened?” as shown in the agenda, to “What the Hell Happened?” Nevertheless, the Sun continues to rise and conservatives will continue to fight, so we may as well look for
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November 13, 2022 — Scott Johnson
The Arizona and Nevada Senate races have been called for Democratic incumbents Mark Kelly and Catherine Cortez Masto, respectively. With only the Georgia Senate runoff election outstanding, the Democrats appear to have maintained their 50-seat majority in the Senate (with Vice President Harris breaking ties). Democrats can enhance their majority to 51-49 with a victory in the Georgia runoff or maintain the status quo with a loss. The AP’s story
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November 12, 2022 — Scott Johnson
I am still kicking myself for having credited the Trafalgar polls of Minnesota and other states in the runup to this week’s midterm elections. I think we should account for our errors. I apologized to readers in “After last night” and I reiterate it here. I think we should acknowledge our errors and account for them. My mistake in this case was attributable to my understanding of Trafalgar’s recent record
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November 11, 2022 — Scott Johnson
I developed a healthy respect for attorney John A. “Jack” Clifford many years ago when we represented adverse parties in an intellectual property dispute. Jack is of counsel with Merchant & Gould. P.C. He sends us this first-hand report under the heading WHAT IS WRONG WITH MARICOPA COUNTY? PLENTY AND IT’S COMPLICATED. The AP’s latest story on the doings in Arizona is here. Jack writes: I hope you are well.
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November 11, 2022 — Scott Johnson
Ammo Grrrll has a few thoughts ABOUT LAST TUESDAY…She writes: Good night, everybody. John Fetterman has won in Pennsylvania. And the voting machines and ballot printers did not “work” in Arizona, although I think they worked exactly the way they were intended. A judge ruled against allowing the polls to be open for three more hours or for hand-counting the ballots. Awesome. And the person responsible for the mess was
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November 10, 2022 — Steven Hayward
Glad to see Joel Kotkin—a former progressive—thinks as I do about the longer-term effect of the mid-term, writing at UnHerd: For all their cautious optimism yesterday, a mild Midterms victory may prove the last thing the Democrats need. If they had performed as predicted, the Democrats and their media adjuncts would now be busily dissecting their defeat. But what has to be considered a lost Republican opportunity — gaining little
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