Kamala Harris has held a narrow edge in the betting odds as compiled by RealClear Politics for the last several weeks, but after last night’s outstanding performance by JD Vance and disastrous performance by Tim Walz, the betting odds are now dead even:
This is consistent with the point I made this morning, that this this year’s election is so excruciatingly close that even an edge in a vice presidential debate might make a difference.
As I have said before, I don’t think bettors have any particular wisdom or insight. However, bettors are sincere. They aren’t spinning, like most of what you read. They are betting on the basis of what they actually think. Therefore, betting odds are a good window into the conventional wisdom at any particular moment. And I think that today’s odds reflect the fact that the GOP had a good night last night, and that good night slightly–but potentially importantly–boosted Donald Trump’s chances in the election.
