Transportation of goods between Asia and Europe is, obviously, of great importance. There are basically three routes, or potential routes:
Our goal, and Europe’s, is to identify a route that does not go through Russia or Iran. That is now becoming feasible, as Armenia is swinging toward the West. The Telegraph has a long piece that you should read in its entirety. I will try to convey the gist:
To Moscow’s growing alarm, Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind a proposed transport route – one that would inevitably bear his name – along Armenia’s southern border with Iran.
The so-called Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (Tripp) would provide the missing link connecting resource-rich Central Asia with Turkey and Europe, weakening Russia’s grip over east-west trade while boosting European access to energy and critical minerals.
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For three decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia treated the South Caucasus as its backyard, with Armenia among its most loyal regional allies.
But that has changed.
Armenia’s political drift towards the West is troubling enough for Moscow. More alarming still is Mr Pashinyan’s “Crossroads of Peace” initiative – enthusiastically backed by Mr Trump – to transform Armenia from a landlocked frontier state into a regional transport hub.
For years the Kremlin has feared the emergence of a “Middle Corridor”, a transport route running through Central Asia and the South Caucasus that would allow Europe to bypass Russia when trading with China and the resource-rich states beyond the Caspian Sea.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, disruption to trade routes and intensifying competition for critical minerals have accelerated interest in alternative overland links between Europe and Asia.
President Trump is playing a key role:
Here, unexpectedly, Mr Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy proved useful.
Unexpectedly!
Seeking to break the deadlock, Washington proposed what diplomats described as a characteristically Trumpian solution: the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or Tripp.
Under the proposal, the corridor – a stretch of territory only 27 miles long – would remain sovereign Armenian land. But its development and security would be overseen by a US state-backed company operating under a 99-year lease.
Despite its modest size, Tripp’s strategic implications are significant.
For the EU, which quickly pledged £1.8bn towards the initiative, Tripp offers a major step towards strategic autonomy by creating a southern branch of the Middle Corridor that bypasses both Russia and an increasingly unreliable Georgia.
For Armenia, it represents both an economic lifeline and an exit ramp from Russian domination. As for Mr Trump, he has already earned nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize from both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The wheel is still in spin. An election is under way in Armenia, in which its pro-Western Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, is seeking re-election. Russia reportedly is trying to influence the election, with its usual strategy involving social media bots. But, while the outcome is uncertain, there is a real possibility of the Trump administration’s creative initiative delivering great benefit to us as well as the Europeans, to the disadvantage of Russia and Iran.
Weirdly, these important developments have received hardly any attention in the American press.
