First tango at Lake Lucerne

The United States is now deeply invested in the removal of the architecture of sanctions that has handicapped the Iranian regime. As of this morning, Secretary Bessent commenced the unraveling with a 60-day license allowing Iran to engage in all aspects of the oil trade in dollars.

This move was in exchange for the apparent restoration of the status quo ante in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian regime last traded that good in the April 8 ceasefire agreement to which Iran adhered “more in the breach than the observance.” Having sold us that particular Persian rug a second time, one may infer that they must have the upper hand with the Trump administration. They nevertheless maintain the resources to shut down the Strait at will.

More below.

It’s a new dawn for Tehran.

Vice President Vance went to Lake Lucerne to put a happy face on the negotiations he has spearheaded. He proclaims the belief that the Iranian regime may be turning a new page. Where have we heard that before?

In his public statements Vance has done his best to nail down what he must believe to be the crucial Tucker Carlson wing of the MAGA movement. I should think this performance won Carlson’s approval: “The Iranian foreign minister entered last and refused to shake hands. We didn’t need photographs to tell us who looked confident and who looked desperate, but these images made it easy for the world to draw its own conclusions.”

Are we cooperating with Iran’s objective of protecting Hezbollah? The “de-confliction mechanism” over which they are negotiating leaves Israel out while Iran continues to orchestrate Hezbollah’s activities in Lebanon.

Our investment in the current arrangemet requires Vance to put a different kind of face on this aspect of the deal. He embraces the role of Israel’s disciplinarian, as Michael Goodwin observed yesterday in “Trump and Vance are rattled on Iran —and their attacks on Israel prove it” (“here is Vance acting as if Israel, our mighty and loyal ally, is a problem for the sin of defending itself against Hezbollah”).

Not to get too technical, but Iran’s commitment to IAEA inspections — cited by Bessent above — is meaningless at this point. Here is a question for students of ancient history: Under what agreement did Iran previously commit to IAEA inspections? No cheating!

More to come.

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