Trump Foreign Policy
July 2, 2026 — Scott Johnson
Melanie Phillips posted her interview with Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster of the British podcast TRIGGERnometry under the title “Realism or Appeasement?” TRIGGERnometry gave it the title “Has Trump surrendered to Iran?” The discussion takes up the possible folly of President Trump’s stalemated war on the Iranian regime. Neither title quite captures the gist of the conversation. Phillips provides this summary at her Substack site: While in London, I was
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June 30, 2026 — Scott Johnson
There’s something happening in the Strait of Hormuz. What it is ain’t exactly the Jews. I have expressed my doubts about the the Memorandum of Understanding that was to open the Strait. Complications have arisen. Vice President Vance’s negotiating partners do not appear to be operating in good faith’ I read the news today, oh boy: US envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner are in Doha
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June 30, 2026 — Scott Johnson
The terms of the Memorandum of Understanding to the contrary notwithstanding, the IDF continues at least some of its efforts to remove the threat of Hezbollah from its northern border with Lebanon. Havind discovered a massive underground weapons cache in recent days, the IDF destroyed if on Sunday evening after warning Israelis that the resulting explosion might feel like an earthquake. The explosion could be heard across northern Israel. Now
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June 29, 2026 — John Hinderaker
This depressing report comes from Israel National News: Senior officials in the IDF Intelligence Directorate and Southern Command warned IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir last week that Hamas’ military wing is rebuilding its capabilities and preparing for another round of fighting, Kan News reported on Sunday. According to the report, the officers said Hamas is manufacturing hundreds of explosive devices and anti-tank missiles each month, recruiting operatives
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June 28, 2026 — Scott Johnson
Vice President Vance has bragged about “the deconfliction channel” Washington and Tehran agreed to set up during talks in Switzerland. Representatives from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the US Army’s Central Command are to sit together — where else? — in Qatar: “One of the things we wanted to come out with [was a] channel on the Iranian side [for reducing conflict], which we did,” Vance said in an
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June 26, 2026 — Scott Johnson
Is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed? The Iranian thugocracy has sold the opening of the Strait to us twice, first in the April 8 ceasefire agreement and again, most recently, in the Memorandum of Understanding. Under the Memorandum of Understanding, the thugs are reaping huge and immediate finanicial gains. Based on President Trump’s public comments, one may infer that the many concessions made to the thugs in the
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June 24, 2026 — Scott Johnson
I headlined my post on St. Paul Academy alumnus Tim Sheey’s appearance on Fox News with Brian Kilmeade “Senator Sheehy explains.” The Wall Street Journal headlines its editorial on the same segment “Tim Sheehy explains Iran.” The Journal’s editors write: The Trump Administration is working overtime to sell its deal with Iran and assail anyone who questions sanctions relief for the regime that has massacred thousands of its own people.
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June 24, 2026 — Scott Johnson
In the Memorandum of Understanding to which the United States and Iran agreed, President Trump granted Iran an immdediate concession. Under the concession, the United States has issued a general license to Iran. Under the general license, Iran is authorized to sell oil in dollars for 60 days. If we granted this huge concession in exchange for anything, it must have been Iran’s agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz
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June 23, 2026 — Scott Johnson
There is much more to be said about the terms of the ceasefire under which the Iranian regime is now raking in the billions (under the general license granted by Secretary Bessent that I posted yesterday in “First tango in Lake Lucerne”) . We must have lost the war. President Trump has posited the alternative to the deal as a global depression. I didn’t think a master dealmaker would reveal
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June 22, 2026 — Scott Johnson
The United States is now deeply invested in the removal of the architecture of sanctions that has handicapped the Iranian regime. As of this morning, Secretary Bessent commenced the unraveling with a 60-day license allowing Iran to engage in all aspects of the oil trade in dollars. This move was in exchange for the apparent restoration of the status quo ante in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian regime last
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June 19, 2026 — John Hinderaker
I was on the Rowan Dean Show on Sky News last night. The Sky News hosts have been very pro-Trump, and I wasn’t sure how Rowan would react to my negative take on the Iran Memorandum of Understanding. I needn’t have worried: Rowan was more outspoken in his condemnation than I was. We also talked about Gaza and Ukraine’s drone strikes against Russia. It is a short appearance, just five
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June 19, 2026 — John Hinderaker
The Memorandum of Understanding with Iran appears not to have lasted for 48 hours, as Iran has once again blocked the Strait of Hormuz: Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz Friday instead of heading to Switzerland for nuclear negotiations, citing Israel’s refusal to pull forces out of southern Lebanon and US forces’ ongoing presence in the region. In a statement read over maritime radio channels, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
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June 19, 2026 — Scott Johnson
Vice President Vance unloaded on Israel in a White House press conference (video here, transcript here) and other media appearances yesterday. He called out “people within Bibi’s cabinet” — let’s just say Israel — for attacking President Trump personally over the deal. I don’t think they have done that, but that’s what the man said. He called out Israeli forces for wanton killing in Lebanon while defending Israel against Hezbollah.
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June 19, 2026 — Scott Johnson
I’ve been looking for Senator Tom Cotton’s assessment of the Memorandum of Understanding. I don’t think he had publicly assessed the terms until he turned up for a brief interview with Marth MacCallum on Fox News yesterday. He prefaces his assessment with an expression of gratitude for all President Trump has done to set the Iranian regime back before explaining why “certain aspects of the deal are a step in
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June 18, 2026 — John Hinderaker
For some weeks now, ever since the bombing stopped, I have been writing and saying on radio and television that there is no point in trying to make a deal with the IRGC, that we should finish up our bombing and go home. I was baffled as to why President Trump was so determined to negotiate an agreement, and chalked it up to his love of deal-making. But I consoled
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June 18, 2026 — Scott Johnson
Consistent with President Trump’s prior formulation, Iran lost the war but won the negotiation. Relying on the Wall Street Journal’s annotated analysis of the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran here, I broke down the provisions of the MOU into winners and losers for each side. NBC has posted a version of the final text of the MOU here. On second thought, however, it seems obvious that on balance the terms
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June 17, 2026 — Scott Johnson
General Jack Keane appeared yesterday for a brief segment on Fox News with Bill Melugin. He was great, as usual. Vice President Vance turns up in a clip at the beginning of the segment. I cannot square what Vance says in the clip about the right of destruction of Iran’s “enriched stockpile” under the Memorandum of Understanding with the terms as we have received them (no such provision exists). Whole
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