Author Archives: Paul Mirengoff

Mixed Senate polling news

Featured image Massachusetts: A UMass/Boston Herald poll has Scott Brown leading Elizabeth Warren by 1 point, 49-48, among likely voters. However, other recent pollsfind Warren ahead by about 5 points. UMass/Boston Herald has been an outlier in this race before. In September, it found Brown ahead by 4 points at a time when Warren was ahead in nearly every other poll. This doesn’t that the UMass/Boston Herald results should be discounted. However, »

22,000 deserving “favorites” the government decided not to pick

Featured image As discussed in the post below, the auto industry bailout is a classic case of crony capitalism, and one which has not accomplished its stated goal of putting General Motors on a sound footing. Nonetheless, the Obama campaign has made the bailout the centerpiece of its efforts to hold the electoral votes of the crucial states of Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The web ad below, by American Future Fund, counters »

The auto industry bailout — a classic case of crony capitalism

Featured image Peter Schweizer, in the Washington Times, helps expose the auto industry bailout for what it was — “a classic tale of cronyism, in which the well-connected sped away with big bucks.” In this instance, the “well-connected” can be found mainly in the world of Big Finance: In his recent book “Bailout,” the former special inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, Neil Barofsky, points out that when it came »

After months of non-stop personal attacks against him, Romney emerges in as favorable a light as Obama

Featured image Mary Katharine Ham finds that in the waning days of this election, Mitt Romney has closed the “likeability gap,” formerly thought to be President Obama’s greatest asset, in three national polls. The polls in question are Washington Post/ABC News (Obama viewed favorably by 54 percent, Romney by 53 percent); Politico/GW (Obama 51 percent; Romney 50 percent); and Fox News (Obama 52; Romney 51). It’s not difficult to believe that Romney »

The Catholic vote in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan

Featured image Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and maybe Michigan have turned out to be among the very most important states in this year’s presidential election. These states have several things in common, one of which is a large Catholic population. Catholics represent approximately 18 percent of the population in Ohio, 29.5 percent in Wisconsin, 28.5 in Pennsylvania, and 22 percent in Michigan. A Columbus Dispatch poll gives Romney a 55 to 44 lead »

Good news from Montana

Featured image Montana is a Red State, and there will be no good excuse if Republican Denny Rehberg (a Power Line Pick Six candidate) does not defeat liberal Democrat Jon Tester this year. But the absence of a good excuse for losing doesn’t ensure victory in Red State Senate races — a lesson that likely will be reinforced in one or more Senate race on Tuesday. Fortunately, Rehberg has run a pretty »

Who’s ahead in Iowa?

Featured image Michael Barone has predicted that Mitt Romney will carry Iowa. The polls, however, tend to favor President Obama. NBC/WSJ/Marist shows President Obama up by 6 percentage points — 50 to 44 percent; Gravis Marketing shows Obama up 4 points — 49 to 45 percent; WeAskAmerica shows Obama up 1.5 points — 48.8 to 47.3 percent; while Rasmussen shows Mitt Romney up 1 point — 49 to 48 percent. At the »

Republicans have their work cut out for them in Nevada

Featured image Although Michael Barone predicts that Mitt Romney will be elected pretty handily, he gives President Obama the edge in Nevada: Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas’ Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions’ turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they’ll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama [to win the State]. »

Dumbest Washington Post op-ed ever?

Featured image Considering that the Washington Post regularly runs columns by the likes of Eugene Robinson, E.J. Dionne, and Dana Milbank — few of which I read — I’m hesitant to declare any Post op-ed its dumbest ever. Yet this piece by Colbert King, which argues that Mitt Romney may well be the new Andrew Johnson, surely is a strong contender. Johnson was the racist president who succeeded Abraham Lincoln. Johnson tried »

Afghanistan missing from candidates’ “closing arguments”

Featured image Today’s Wall Street Journal contains “closing argument” statements by Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. President Obama mentions Afghanistan once in part of a sentence that talks about “ending” – not winning – “the wars.” Romney says nothing about Afghanistan. A friend writes: Think about this for a second: America has been at war in Afghanistan for 11 years; Americans are currently fighting and dying there; and neither candidate for president »

The House, at least, will be Republican-controlled

Featured image Republican control of the Senate, once a very reasonable prospect, now seems unlikely. The race for the White House, to the extent one relies heavily on current polls, is too close to call. But at least it’s nearly certain that Republicans will retain control of the House. The Washington Post’s “Fix” is basically in-line with other forecasters in projecting that “the 2012 race for the House is likely to be »

Yet another Benghazigate question

Featured image Last night, John wrote about the information revealed in documents found by two reporters for Foreign Policy when they visited the Benghazi consulate, six weeks after the terrorist attack there. The documents include letters, drafted on the day of the attack, that suggest the compliticity of Libyan officials in the terrorist attack on the consulate. The discovery of these documents raises additional questions relevant to Benghazigate. A threshold question, propounded »

Crunching the numbers in Iowa and peeking into Ohio

Featured image Yesterday, via a reader who follows Nevada politics closely who used early vote data as his starting point, we served up some number crunching on the status of the presidential election in Nevada. Today, Jim Geraghty performs the same kind of number crunching in Iowa. Geraghty’s bottom line is that the situation in Iowa looks good for Romney, assuming that polls showing the Governor with a 9 point lead among »

Rudy Giuliani unloads

Featured image In the video below, Rudy Giuliani blasts President Obama over his response in New York to Hurricane Sandy and his lack of response to the attack in Benghazi. It is vintage Giuliani. Frankly, I’m not one to criticize presidents because big problems remain following a natural disaster or for not visiting this or that affected location. On the other hand, unlike Chris Christie, I’m not one to effusively praise a »

Report: Key task force not convened during Benghazi attack

Featured image President Obama has claimed that “the minute” he became aware of the Benghazi attack, he directed his staff to “make sure that we are securing our personnel and doing whatever we need to do.” But CBS News reports that one thing Obama and his staff didn’t do was to convene its top interagency counterterrorism resource: the Counterterrorism Security Group, (CSG). “The CSG is the one group that’s supposed to know »

The latest from Rasmussen

Featured image Ramussen has released new polls from three important states: Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Here are the results: Colorado — Romney 50, Obama 47 Iowa — Romney 49, Obama 48 Wisconsin — Romney 49, Obama 49 Earlier this week, a Rasmussen poll showed Romney leading in the most important of all states, Ohio, by 50 to 48. All of these results seem plausible to me. However, if you shifted the margins »

Crunching the numbers in Nevada

Featured image In response to my post about early voting in Nevada, an astute (but admittedly partisan) reader from that state crunches the numbers, makes a few assumptions, and concludes that Romney has a pretty good shot at carrying Nevada: For what it is worth here is my back of the envelope review of where we are at in NV. The NV early voting is now about D+6½ which is a modest »