This is the last in my series of posts this morning on the memorandum of understanding the Trump administration has reached with Iran. The administration has not yet entrusted us with a look at it. If it were impressive, it would have been made public.
In an appearance on CNN yesterday, Vice President Vance described the memorandum as “a very general document” with specifics of the deal to be worked out during further negotiations. “The MOU…is about a page and half so it is a very general document,” Vance said on CNN. “On a number of issues, we are going to have to figure this stuff out during the technical negotiation phase.”
The technical phase is the 60-day extension of the ceasfire that plays to the Iranian regime’s strength in delay. That is my technical interpretatation of the technical phase.
Given the administration’s nondisclosure of the memorandum text, I’ve been looking for hints of its quality, as in “Waiting for memo.” Here are a few more.
First, Vice President Vance is out selling the arrangement reflected in the memorandum and related understandings in unbelievable terms. His selling of the MOU is profoundly unimpressive.
Second, key officials who know the terms of the arrangement have to my knowledge remained silent. They include Secretary of State and Acting National Security Advisor Marco Rubio as well as Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. If all were really right with the arrangement, Rubio would be out there leading the charge along with Vance. We would also be hearing from Hegseth. Their silence is untenable.
Third, CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly has a realistic view of the regime’s intentions. He has not joined Vance in fantasyland: “Ratcliffe told President Trump and other senior officials that evidence gathered by U.S. intelligence agencies raises serious doubts about Iran’s willingness to make the nuclear concessions the U.S. is seeking in any final deal, according to three sources familiar with those discussions.” On the other hand, we have Vance’s “cool” world.
Fourth, in Tablet’s daily Scroll of June 15, Park MacDougald reviews the administration’s talking points in favor of the arrangement with the Iranian regime as distributed by the White House in a memo to media surrogates. The memo lists five “message points.” Here they are, with MacDougald’s commentary in parentheses:
1. “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.” (Quote from the preamble of the JCPOA: “Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop, or acquire any nuclear weapons.”)
2. “President Trump ended the fighting on every front, including Lebanon. No more forever war.” (The framing of the Israeli war against Hezbollah, which involves no U.S. troops or personnel, as a “forever war” is an admittedly creative way of selling our decision to cave to Iranian demands that we protect Hezbollah as a down payment on negotiations.)
3. “The Strait of Hormuz is open again, free of charge.” (Arguable, given that Iran’s Foreign Ministry is now talking about charging ships “fees”—not tolls!—and also funny, insofar as the administration is selling a return to the status quo ante as an achievement of the war.)
4. “Iran’s rewards come from its own unfrozen money, not from American taxpayers, and only after it performs.” (From “Fact Sheet: 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal: Correcting Misconceptions,” published by the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation: “Misconception: The Iran deal included a U.S. payment of $150 billion to Iran. The Facts: “The money that Iran receives from complying with the agreement is not a direct payment from the U.S. government. Instead, the funds are Iranian foreign assets, which the international sanctions regime prevented Iran from accessing. Under the JCPOA, these nuclear-related sanctions were waived after Iran verifiably completed its initial obligations.”)
5. “Obama never even got a signed document. President Trump did, from strength, after dismantling Iran’s program.” (A “signed document”? Who cares?)
Until such time as the administration entrusts the American public with a view of the memorandum of understanding, you be the judge.