Okay, the image of Joe Biden doing anything more vigorous than plodding along is incongruous. However, Biden is marching to victory over Bernie Sanders tonight.
Biden has been declared the winner in Missouri and Mississippi, and he’s ahead in Michigan. If he wins these states plus Washington (where the polls are still open), the race for the Democratic nomination will be effectively over, I think.
If there’s any good news for Sanders so far, it may be that he’s not getting blown out in Michigan. As of a little after 9:00 in the East, Biden’s lead is about 12 points with less than 40 percent of the vote counted. Frankly, that’s closer than I expected.
However, Sanders won Michigan in 2016. Thus, it will be no moral victory to finish second, let alone to lose by double digits, especially given that Biden went into tonight ahead in the delegate count.
To get an idea of Sanders’s slide from four years ago, FiveThirtyEight reports:
With 100 percent of Election Day precincts reporting, Sanders has won Michigan’s Kent County (home to Grand Rapids) just 49 percent to 46 percent. . .[H]e won it by 25 points in 2016.
I suspect it won’t be long before Michigan is called for Biden.
UPDATE: Michigan was called for Biden at around 9:10 p.m. in the East. Sanders seems to be doing well enough to collect a decent share of Michigan delegates. All things considered, however, he needed a win in this state.
NORTH DAKOTA is next up. I think voting is just wrapping up there. In any event, we have no results yet. (I think this is still a caucus state, but I’m not sure. It was four years ago.)
There hasn’t been much polling in North Dakota, but Biden is expected to win the state. Sanders won it resoundingly in 2016.
NOT MUCH TO REPORT NOW: We still have no results from North Dakota. I’m watching the basketball game between Gonzaga and St. Mary’s (with no sound because Dick Vitale is doing the commentary). Gonzaga is up by a point at half time.
The Zags are ranked second in the country. However, they aren’t playing defense like a team destined to win the national championship. I’m told, though, that this year’s field lacks great teams, so maybe I shouldn’t judge Gonzaga harshly based on one half of one game.
SANDERS HAS THE EARLY LEAD IN NORTH DAKOTA: About 10 percent of that vote is in. Sanders leads Biden by 13 points, 39 to 26.
I’m wondering whether this count is heavily influenced by early voting. Warren is at 12 percent, and she dropped out a few days ago. If the count is unduly weighted in favor of the early vote, then Biden might catch up, depending on how early the early vote is.
UPDATE: I think all of this vote is made up of ballots mailed in early. Buttigieg and Bloomberg have 12 percent of it between them.
MEANWHILE: Gonzaga has tightened its defense and leads St. Mary’s by 15 points. That’s also Biden’s current margin in Michigan, which is more or less in line with what I, and many others, expected.
IN IDAHO: Biden is out to a 10 point lead with about 10 percent of precincts reporting.
UPDATE: Biden continues to hold the 10 point lead with about 20 percent of precincts reporting. I’m thinking that Washington, which looks to be very close, is Sanders’s only hope of avoiding a shutout tonight.
CORRECTION: Sanders has a shot in North Dakota, where he still leads. Apparently, North Dakota held a primary this year, but the rate at which results are coming in resembles a caucus.
IN WASHINGTON: Biden and Sanders are just about dead even with more than half of the precincts reporting. There must have been a lot of early voting, because “others” are running slightly ahead of both Biden and Sanders.
SIGNING OFF: I don’t think we’ll know who won Washington any time soon. The same may be true for North Dakota.
Idaho has gotten closer — Biden’s margin is only about 2 points and about 2,500 votes — so the outcome there is also less than certain.
What we know is that Biden didn’t stall tonight. He won the states he was expected to win, and won them handily. Meanwhile, Sanders is struggling to win states where he once looked like the clear favorite.
I don’t think Biden quite landed a knockout blow. But he added to his delegate lead and, with only good states for him on deck this month, he should soon have a virtually insurmountable lead.
Sanders’s only hope is to thrash Biden in the upcoming debate. But when you’re a socialist in a party that doesn’t want to nominate a socialist this year, it’s hard to thrash anyone, even Joe Biden, in a one-on-one debate.
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