Identity Politics Hits the Wall

As of this writing (midnight eastern) it is still too close to call. The upper midwest states will make the difference, and it may take several days (or several weeks of court cases) to determine the winner. But two things are clear already: there has been an even bigger epic failure of the mainstream polls than there was in 2016. A related point is that the high turnout—perhaps the largest since 1908—appears to have helped Trump and Republicans.

The second thing is a much bigger story. The data we have so far seems to indicate that Trump’s share of the white vote actually fell from 2016, while his share of the black and hispanic vote increased. Here are two charts from the NY Times and the exit polls, showing that Trump doubled his share of black women. The Times survey at the bottom shows yuuge gains among hispanics.

Maybe the left will need to have some second thoughts on their entire identity politics obsession.

Conclusion: If the GOP holds the Senate as now projected, and gain seats in the House, even if Biden wins by the skin of his teeth, it will be the saddest victory in electoral history.

UPDATE: California’s Proposition 16, the measure to repeal the ban on race-based discrimination, is losing by a wide margin so far.