Can We Have the Election In January?

Bad news continues to pile up for the Democrats, as early returns on the Biden administration are dismal, and support for their Congressional initiatives is minimal. Rasmussen’s survey of likely voters finds the GOP with a nine-point lead, 48%-39%, on the generic ballot. This is down a little from November’s unprecedented 13-point lead–likely a statistical fluke–but still extraordinary by historical standards. Normally, if the Republicans are even or within a few points it portends a good GOP year.

This could be even worse: Gallup finds voters shifting their allegiance to the Republicans. This is from Stephen Green:

Gallup recently updated its long-term party affiliation poll, which asks American voters one or two simple questions:

* In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?

* (If they ID as independents) As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?

Currently, 31% say they’re Republicans, up slightly from the usual mid-20s to 30%. 41% told Gallup that they’re independent voters, in line with the average swing. Only 27% self-ID as Democrats, which is down from the more typical 29-32%.

As recently as May, Democrats were at 32% and the GOP at a dismal 25%.

If more voters consider themselves Republicans than Democrats, we are in for a very good election cycle. This is just as important:

Indies, asked whether they lean towards the Democrats or the GOP, broke for the GOP 47% to 41%.

At this time in Barack Obama’s first term, the breakdown was a much more Dem-friendly 25R/41I/32D. And the Indy swing was exactly reversed, 41R/47D.

And we all know what happened in 2010.

So I wish we didn’t have to wait almost a year until the election. Still, it is hard to see what the Democrats can do to improve their numbers. Their biggest problem is inflation, and maybe the best thing for the Democrats would be not to pass any more legislation, so the inflation problem doesn’t get any worse. That would be the best thing for America, too.

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