One of the interesting findings of the first round of the French presidential election a few days ago was that Marine Le Pen drew her strength primarily from younger voters, while Macron depended on older voters for his margin of victory. While Macron will almost certainly win the run-off rematch (though by a smaller margin over Le Pen than in 2017), this doesn’t bode well for the future of his brand of bland centrism. As we noted here a few days ago, the split looks like this in a pre-election poll looking ahead to the runoff:
Data from polling group Harris Interactive showed the hard-left Melenchon won the biggest chunk of voters aged 18-24 with 34.8% of their votes, with Macron and Le Pen following with 24.3% and 18% of that vote, respectively. Le Pen took the largest proportion of voters aged 25-49 at 30%.
She also came ahead among 35-49 year olds with 28.8% of that vote. Macron only beat his rivals among the elderly, winning 37.5% of voters over the age of 65 and 28% among 50-64 year olds.
This also fits with my perception that support for the right in Hungary enjoys considerable support from younger voters. The situation here in the U.S. seems the opposite: young people skew heavily left.
Maybe not for much longer.
Today’s bad news for Democrats comes from the latest Quinnipiac Poll, which finds Biden’s approval ratings among registered voters down to 35 percent. (Look past the headline number of all respondents putting Biden’s approval rating at 39 percent—it’s the registered voters number that counts.)
More startling is the crosstab of the views of younger voters, below. In 2020, younger voters in general skewed D+24. It appears this cohort is shifting hard against Biden at least.
The Economist was on to this trend a few months ago:
America’s left depends on the support of young people. In 2008 it was they who powered Barack Obama’s primary campaign against Hillary Clinton and were critical in securing his landslide win against John McCain. . . But Mr Biden’s failure to impress the young now threatens his presidency.
According to The Economist’s analysis of polling conducted with YouGov, an online survey firm, an average of 29% of American adults under the age of 30 approve of the job Mr Biden is doing as president. But that compares with 50% who disapprove. . . This is a sharp reversal from the beginning of the year, when young voters gave Mr Biden a net approval rating 32 points higher than older people did. And Mr Biden is falling out of favour fastest with the youngest groups.
Chaser, from The Hill:
Democrats are facing a nightmare scenario with about six months to go before the midterm elections. . . “I think this is going to be a biblical disaster,” said one such Democratic strategist, who did not wish to be named. “This is the reality we are in as Democrats and no one wants to face it.”