Josh Kraushaar has left National Journal for Axios. Yesterday Axios flagged Kraushaar’s reading of the demographic shifts reflected in the latest New York Times/Siena College Poll: “Democrats now have a bigger advantage among white college graduates than they do with nonwhite voters…”
Today on Axios Kraushaar writes under his own byline in “The great realignment.” The key data point is among Hispanic voters: “Democrats are statistically tied with Republicans among Hispanics on the generic congressional ballot…Dems held a 47-point edge with Hispanics during the 2018 midterms.”
Kraushaar summarizes his findings at the top of the post:
Shifts in the demographics of the two parties’ supporters — taking place before our eyes — are arguably the biggest political story of our time.
The big picture: Republicans are becoming more working class and a little more multiracial. Democrats are becoming more elite and a little more white.
Why it matters: Democrats’ hopes for retaining power rest on nonwhite voters remaining a reliable part of the party’s coalition. Democrats’ theory of the case collapses if Republicans make even incremental gains with those voters.
Kraushaar adds this proviso: “Suburban districts still make up the majority of congressional battlegrounds, and the GOP’s Trumpified brand remains a threat to limit their gains.” He adds the following bullet points:
• Republican candidates holding extreme views on abortion or echoing Trump’s election lies are still toxic in the suburbs.
• Since the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling, Democrats have made small gains in national polls.
He concludes: “The GOP is trading soccer moms for Walmart dads.”
Kraushaar’s work picks up on a theme that Ruy Teixera has pursued on his Liberal Patriot (Substack) site. Today his post “Working Class and Hispanic Voters Are Losing Interest in the Party of Abortion, Gun Control and the January 6th Hearings” amplifies Kraushaar’s analysis. Much work remains to be done on it to assess permanence and impact. I would like to know more about the effects of the movement Teixera and Kraushaar observe.
I would only like to add that the progressivism of the Democratic Party has become a form of conspicuous consumption for the wealthy, the professional class, and the overeducated. This is an observation that has become increasingly obvious over the years. The Biden administration has served to add an exclamation point to it.