Tom Bevan is president of RealClearPolitics and a real clear observer of the American political scene. He has posted a thread on the results of the midterm elections on Twitter. There is a lot to chew over here. I submit it to interested readers at the bottom of this post.
Tom tactfully observes that Republicans “will gain only a handful of House seats…” He leaves open the question whether Republicans will pick up a majority and position themselves to slow down the destructive effects of Biden administration policies on the well-being of the United States. Politico’s Steven Shepard observes that there are 10 seats still in doubt and both parties have a shot. Shepard’s story is “Control of the House remains on a knife’s edge. Here’s how it could break.”
Over the weekend, we visited blue wave city with the 10 most recently called House races flopping for Democrats. Before serving up a breakdown of the up-for-grab races, Shepard notes that the battle for the House will be resolved on 10 seats that are “in doubt[.]” Shepard finds “six with Republicans leading, and four where Democrats are ahead — both parties still have a shot, though the GOP is still favored.”
UPDATE: Following my early morning post above, RedState’s Mr. Bonchie commented on the state of play in “Republicans Mercifully, Finally Get Some Good News Regarding the 2022 Election.” I found it a useful addition to the mix.
despite the fact three of those races took place in states that were razor close in 2020 (GA, AZ, and NV) – and despite the fact Biden's approval rating was in the low 40s in all of them.
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 13, 2022
Another factor: Biden's disapproval #s were soft. Of the roughly 10% of voters who 'somewhat disapproved' of Biden, WI was the only battleground state where they voted in favor of the GOP…. pic.twitter.com/7Khoslq9eC
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 13, 2022
One last nugget: On avg, Dems voted 3 pts more along partisan lines in battleground Senate races than GOP. Made a difference in GA, AZ, and NV….. pic.twitter.com/lrKIPyK4BU
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 13, 2022
Obviously, all of this speaks to GOP candidate quality being a factor in some Senate races. But that still doesn't explain GOP underperformance in the House. /end
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 13, 2022
