Ukraine Escalation?

The war in Ukraine seems to have faded as a topic of concern, but not because there is nothing to worry about. The Secretary-General of NATO sees a “real possibility” of all-out war between Russia and the NATO allies:

There is a “real possibility” that the war in Ukraine could spill over into a full-scale conflict between Nato and Russia, the head of the military alliance has warned, in some of his strongest comments yet on the threat of escalation.

“I fear that the war in Ukraine will get out of control, and spread into a major war between Nato and Russia,” said Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, responding to a question about his greatest fears for the winter in an interview.
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The former Norwegian prime minister emphasised the importance of continued military support for Ukraine but would not be drawn on the question of whether Nato member states should agree to provide more advanced, long-range offensive weaponry.

While some argue that such weapons are essential to help Ukraine bring the war to an end sooner, others worry that it could escalate the conflict and precipitate a direct confrontation between Nato states and Russia.

Then we have this headline, from the London Times: “Pentagon gives Ukraine green light for drone strikes inside Russia.”

Since daily assaults on civilians began in October, the Pentagon has revised its threat assessment of the war in Ukraine. Crucially, this includes new judgments about whether arms shipments to Kyiv might lead to a military confrontation between Russia and Nato.

This represents a significant development in the nine-month war between Ukraine and Russia, with Washington now likelier to supply Kyiv with longer-range weapons.
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If the US decides to supply Ukraine with longer-range weapons capable of striking deeper into Russia, the fear of potential escalation could increase dramatically. But Pentagon officials have made it clear that requests from Kyiv for longer-range US weapons, including rockets and fighter bombers which could be used for even more effective strikes inside Russia or occupied Crimea, are being seriously considered.

“Nothing is off the table,” a senior US defence official said.

In general I tend to be a hawk, not necessarily averse to using military force against our enemies if appropriate. But is it wrong to worry that we may be sleepwalking into a major war, that is disproportionate, at best, to any American interests that are at stake?

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