The inverted yield curve is usually a reliable predictor that a recession is on the way, but so far the lag is at the longish end of previous patterns. On the other hand, some other indicators suggest things are definitely slowing down, and keep in mind that unemployment statistics are usually a lagging indicator of an economic downturn. Let’s start with falling demand for truck drivers:
Maybe there are fewer truck drivers being hired because there is less to ship?
Home buying looks to be slowing down:
Probably mortgage rates have something to do with it:
