Advantage, Vance

In the early days after Tim Walz and JD Vance were announced as vice presidential candidates, Walz scored higher approval ratings. Neither man was broadly familiar to the public, so that was an artifact of biased press coverage.

But in the aftermath of Vance’s crushing debate victory, public opinion has shifted. Rasmussen finds Vance with a positive approval rating, 50% favorable to 42% unfavorable. Walz is under water, at 42% favorable and 44% unfavorable.

Most respondents, of course, are just sticking up for their party, so Vance’s edge no doubt represents an even more significant gulf in public perception than the raw numbers suggest. While this is probably due in large part to the candidates’ debate performances, Walz’s other appearances, in which he has been every bit as incoherent as Kamala Harris, have undoubtedly contributed.

It is a commonplace that vice presidential nominees don’t swing votes. That is true, but they do make some contribution to voters’ overall perception of the ticket. I think that Walz, now that voters have seen him in action, reinforces the sense that Harris is incompetent. Vance, on the other hand, comes across as a strong candidate, consistent with Trump’s image. He has turned out to be a good choice for VP.

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