This New York Times headline will warm your heart: “Republicans Appear Poised to Take Control of Senate, New Poll Shows.” How it must have pained them to write that!
The actual article is much less definitive than the headline. It reports on only three Times/Siena polls. Two are holds by Republicans: Ted Cruz is up by four in Texas, and Rick Scott is up by nine in Florida. Neither is any kind of surprise. The third state isn’t much of a surprise either: Tim Sheehy is pulling away from Jon Tester in Montana, 52%-44%. That is one takeaway that seems safely in the books, and, assuming no other changes, it would flip control of the Senate to the GOP.
RealClearPolitics currently shows a GOP pickup of two seats, Sheehy along with Jim Justice in West Virginia, who is even more of a lock than Sheehy.
While it is hard to see a Republican seat flipping, Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown could also lose. So it seems highly likely that we will have a Republican Senate in 2025.
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