A Post-Election Minnesota Postscript

The New York Post headlines: “Failed veep candidate Tim Walz couldn’t even beat Trump in his home county in telling final blow.”

Democratic vice presidential candidate and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz didn’t just lose the overall election to Donald Trump — he lost his home county to him, too.

President-elect Trump’s overwhelming win saw him net 49.6% of the vote in Minnesota’s Blue Earth County, where Walz’s family lived for 20 years before he was elected governor.

Walz’s running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris, fell short with about 48.3% of the vote.

Actually, Harris did relatively well in Blue Earth County, home to a good-sized university and the town of Mankato. She and Walz were slaughtered much worse across almost all of rural Minnesota:

This illustrates the futility of Democrats’ thinking that Walz, as a V-P nominee, could help them appeal to rural voters. Democrats are deeply unpopular in the countryside, and Walz is no exception to that rule.

Some have speculated that Walz may have hurt Harris in Minnesota, pointing out that her margin of victory was narrower than Joe Biden’s, four years ago. I don’t think that is true, but we can safely say that Walz did her no good. The contrast between the Harris/Walz numbers and incumbent Senator Amy Klobuchar’s win is instructive. Harris carried the state by a 51.1% to 46.8% margin, while Klobuchar defeated Republican Royce White by 56.3% to 40.5%. If Minnesota has a Favorite Son, it isn’t Tim Walz.

Walz now returns to Minnesota to finish out his second term as governor. There has been speculation that he might run for a third term, even though his victory margin declined considerably when he was re-elected in 2022. But, given his embarrassing performance as a vice presidential candidate, and the discreditable facts about his history that are now widely known due to the national spotlight, I think that is unlikely. Democrats like Keith Ellison and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan (generally viewed as even farther to the left than Walz) will probably battle it out for the nomination.

Meanwhile, down-ballot Republicans gained seats in the Minnesota House, the only races that were on tap this year. The House is now evenly divided at 67-67, which presumably means that nothing very controversial will pass next year. And there is an outside chance that an election contest could throw the majority to the Republicans. Meanwhile, Democrats control the Senate by 44-43, but infamous burglar Nicole Mitchell goes to trial in January. A conviction, which seems pretty certain since she was caught red-handed by local police, presumably would mean a special election that could tilt control of that chamber.

In short, despite the disappointment of the 2022 election and Trump’s failure to break through this year, Minnesota remains very much up for grabs.

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