The 2028 election is a long way off, and much will happen between now and then. To mention just one non-remote contingency, it is possible that the Democrats will succeed in killing President Trump, so that by 2028 JD Vance is the incumbent president. That would render all current speculation moot.
But who can resist? This post caught my eye last night:
Is the author correct? Let’s go through the categories:
* Defense hawks: Rubio clearly wins here. On the other hand, there are Republican isolationists who will be in Vance’s camp. But I think the hawks are more numerous.
* Christian conservatives: I am a Christian conservative, but not, I take it, a “Christian conservative.” But I think Rubio will indeed have the advantage here.
* Business/fiscal conservatives: Marco will win this group by a wide margin.
* Blue collar men: Here, I think the jury is very much out. I don’t think the fact that Rubio is a “Latino” counts for much here. He certainly will win the Cuban-American vote in a landslide, but the Mexican-American, Puerto Rico-American, etc., vote is another matter.
The broader and more significant question is whether any Republican candidate will duplicate Trump’s blue collar appeal. I hope so, but at this point we just don’t know.
Has the author of this post left out any category of Republicans? I think there are some whose votes hinge mostly on cultural issues, e.g., race discrimination, gender confusion and above all immigration. They are distributed among the above categories, especially Christian conservatives and blue collar voters, but perhaps deserve special mention. At this point, I see Vance and Rubio as equal on these hot-button issues, but perhaps events between now and 2028 will cause one candidate or the other to gain strength.
All of that said, I think the author has a point. I think Rubio’s persona and issue complex are more broadly popular with Republicans than Vance’s. Both are solid conservatives, and what mostly distinguishes them is Vance’s reputation for isolationism. I think that is now a net negative, but that could change, depending on foreign policy successes and failures over the next two years.
And we have the great unknown of which candidate, if either, will inherit Trump’s blue collar mantle.
All of this assumes that Rubio decides to run in 2028. Early in Trump’s term, he said that Vance is doing a great job as VP and the nomination should be his if he wants it. But differences over foreign policy may have sharpened since then, and if Rubio decides to jump in, no one will hold those comments against him.
UPDATE: Marco has said it again, although he didn’t shut the door. 2028 is still a long way off.
