Gavin Newsom has been the presumptive Democratic nominee in the 2028 presidential race for some time, despite his abysmal record as Governor of California. Many have praised his political skills. But the Newsom train has been losing steam:
Former Vice President Kamala Harris has a significant advantage over Newsom and the rest of the field by comfortable margins, in the most recent 14 major polls, suggesting she has the early advantage in a still-fluid race.
A poll by Echelon Insights from July 9 to 13 shows Harris with a 7 percentage point lead ahead of Newsom. A Quantus Insights poll from July 3 to 7 has Harris 18 points ahead, with 35% of the vote share.
Harris leading Newsom 35% to 17%? That’s brutal. Given the hype, it is surprising to see Newsom trailing badly. It is especially surprising to see him trailing Kamala Harris badly. I think Newsom would be a bad candidate, but I know Harris is a bad candidate. After her performance in 2024, the idea that the Democrats would roll her out again in 2028 is laughable. At this point, I would say the main significance of Harris’s standing in the polls is that it exposes how overrated Gavin Newsom has been.
So, who would the Dems’ best 2028 choice be? I have no idea. Someone who as yet is not very well known, someone without a fatally left-wing track record. A Bill Clinton for our time.
Coming off President Trump’s second term, the Democrats should have a strong advantage. Public weariness with Trump will be high, and most will be open to making a change. All the Democrats need, on paper, is a decent candidate, but it is not clear that they will have one.
