Posted on October 3, 2024 by John Hinderaker in Conservatism, Podcasts

For Your Viewing Pleasure

Or you can just listen to it. This edition of the American Experiment podcast, recorded on Tuesday, features a half hour of irreverent conversation on the news of the day by American Experiment’s three youngest staffers. It is followed by me, interviewing Justin Folk, the producer and director of Am I Racist?, as well as other films including What Is a Woman?

Justin and I began by reminiscing about the Power Line Prize competition, which Justin won in (if memory serves) 2011. That $100,000 award turned out to be a significant milestone in the career of America’s most important conservative filmmaker. From there, it is a fascinating behind the scenes look at the making of a hit movie. I encourage you to check it out:

Posted on by Steven Hayward in The Daily Chart

The Daily Chart: The Cost of Demagoguery

A few weeks back we noted here that profit margins for large grocery chains like Kroger, always very small to begin with, were flat over the last decade or two, contrary to what demagogic Democrats were saying to try to distract blame for inflation away from their own monetary malpractice in office. Democrats know better, but Democrats count on the gullible and ill-informed to maintain their electoral power, so they will go on lying about it.

But many Americans are susceptible to demagoguery, and Gallup’s latest survey finds that more Americans give a negative (47%) than positive (33%) rating of the grocery industry, up from about 15 percent when Trump was president.

Posted on October 2, 2024 by John Hinderaker in Biden Administration, Illegal immigration, Immigration, Kamala Harris

Immigration, By the Numbers

It is no coincidence that, in last night’s debate, immigration was the issue on which the moderators intervened to try to stop the Democratic Party’s bleeding. The Biden/Harris administration’s immigration policies have been disastrous, unless they are actually trying to destroy our country. In which case they make perfect sense.

My colleague David Zimmer recaps the Biden/Harris debacle by the numbers. There is more at the link; here are some highlights:

According to the federal government’s own data, there have been nearly 11 million illegal border crossing encounters (2.675 million/year) between 2021 and 2024. By comparison, there were just over 3 million illegal border crossing encounters between 2017-2020 (750k/year).

In addition, border patrol agents have recorded an estimated 2 million “known gotaways” (defined as observed crossing into the US, but not apprehended) since 2021.

The Federation for American Immigration Reform estimates the current illegal immigrant population in the U.S. at 16.8 million, costing U.S. taxpayers an estimated $150 billion annually.

It is hard to say what the Democrats’ position on immigration is. In last night’s debate, it seemed at times that Tim Walz was trying to defend the Harris administration as tough on illegal immigration. But the numbers speak for themselves.

The sheer numbers are horrific, but the composition of the illegal immigrant cohort is, to say the least, concerning:

During encounters in 2023 and 2024, predominantly at our southern border, agents seized nearly 22,000 firearms and 111 explosive devices. 84 illegal migrants were wearing body armor at the time of their encounter.

On a “typical day” in 2023, border patrol agents arrested 44 wanted fugitives attempting to cross our border, and seized over 2,300 lbs. of drugs, including 78 lbs. of deadly fentanyl — DAILY.

375 terrorist watch list apprehensions have taken place on our borders between 2021-2024. That represents a 3000% increase in the number of apprehensions of those on the terrorist watch list between 2017-2020.

Lately quite a bit of attention has focused on the number of known criminals who are entering our country:

Agents have arrested 69,777 non-citizens with criminal convictions attempting to enter the U.S. in the past four years. By comparison, just 21,936 non-citizens with criminal convictions were intercepted and arrested at our borders between 2017-2020. This represents a staggering 144% increase in convicted criminals attempting to cross the border. Of course that’s only those who were intercepted.

And many of those were convicted of violent crimes:

* 178 convicted murderers were arrested at our border, up 1518% from the 11 who tried to enter between 2017-2020.

* 4,565 people convicted of assault were arrested at our border, up 165% from the 1,723 who tried to enter between 2017-2020.

* 1,339 convicted sex offenders were arrested at our border, up 210% from the 431 who tried to enter between 2017-2020.

* 1,161 convicted weapon offenders were arrested at our border, up 195% from the 394 who tried to enter between 2017-2020.

* 7,846 convicted drug offenders were arrested at our border, up 165% from the 2,955 who tried to enter between 2017-2020.

And of course, those are just the ones who happened to be caught.

As stated above, lots more at the link. The bottom line is that on immigration, the Biden/Harris administration has been an utter catastrophe. Apart from any other issue, their immigration follies justify, in fact demand, a new administration. David sums up:

The policy decisions were intentional, the results have been predictable, and the situation placed at the feet of the American public is abhorrent and inexcusable.

Posted on by John Hinderaker in 2024 Election, J D Vance, Tim Walz

The Morning After

Kamala Harris has held a narrow edge in the betting odds as compiled by RealClear Politics for the last several weeks, but after last night’s outstanding performance by JD Vance and disastrous performance by Tim Walz, the betting odds are now dead even:

This is consistent with the point I made this morning, that this this year’s election is so excruciatingly close that even an edge in a vice presidential debate might make a difference.

As I have said before, I don’t think bettors have any particular wisdom or insight. However, bettors are sincere. They aren’t spinning, like most of what you read. They are betting on the basis of what they actually think. Therefore, betting odds are a good window into the conventional wisdom at any particular moment. And I think that today’s odds reflect the fact that the GOP had a good night last night, and that good night slightly–but potentially importantly–boosted Donald Trump’s chances in the election.

Posted on by Steven Hayward in Loose Ends

Loose Ends (263)

• I’m so old I can remember when some leading conservative pundits said J.D. Vance was a terrible pick and predicted that Trump would (and should) change his mind and drop him from the ticket. Good times! Good times! I won’t name names, but I have the receipts.

• Tim Walz is clearly ignorant of Healey’s First Law of Holes: If you’re in one, stop digging. (The law is attributed to the late British pol Dennis Healey.) Today Walz was asked about his bizarre debate comment that he was friends with school shooters. Look—the guy mis-spoke; he clearly intended to say that he has come to know school shooting survivors. Why not just say he mis-spoke and explain it? Instead, when asked about it today, he belched forth with a new word salad that explained nothing. But in the middle of this ramble, Walz said:

David Hogg is a good friend of mine.

That admission alone ought to disqualify Walz from any public office.

Chaser:

• Never mind buying popcorn futures. If Harris and Walz win, I’m going very long on lettuce futures, because there’s no way we can produce enough to supply the four years of word salads we’d be in for.

• The Chinese are candid about things in England right now, even if no one else is:

• Some readers may recall that I was recently in Iceland, and I forgot to mention that the gas station sushi in Iceland is terrific.

Posted on by Scott Johnson in Holidays, Judaism

In the year 5785

The Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashanah begins tonight at sundown. More solemnly than usual, we will observe the arrival of the year 5785 and begin the ten days of reflection culminating in Yom Kippur a week from Friday evening. One of my most thoughtful non-Jewish friends wrote this afternoon to pass on wishes “not only for a good year, but a better one too.” I will be taking the day off tomorrow. Let us put 5784 in the rearview mirror and look forward to better times for Israel and the Jewish people in the coming year.

Posted on by Steven Hayward in The Daily Chart

The Daily Chart: The Democrat Bubble

A group called “More in Common” likes to survey Americans to bolster the finding that political polarization is exaggerated, and their latest report on “The Perception Gap” has lots of whiz-bang charts and tables showing how widely different groups of Americans misperceive other groups or ideological viewpoints. Try to stifle a yawn.

One finding in particular, however, is notable: Democrats have a wider perception gap than Republicans. One reason for this is apparently that Republicans have more diverse friends than Democrats do. As the study observes:

Why do Democrats, as they become more educated, have a wider Perception Gap? The evidence suggests that it’s likely because they have fewer Republican friends. Highly educated Democrats are the most likely to say that “most of my friends” share their political beliefs. The same is not true of Republicans – more educated Republicans report having about as many Democrat friends as less educated Republicans. And Democrats whose friends are similar to them politically have a significantly wider Perception Gap than those with more political diversity in their friendship groups.