I have assumed that Joe Biden’s pledge to ban fracking ruined his chances in Pennsylvania, but the polls are still close. On Halloween, Pennsylvania’s Attorney General tweeted his party’s determination to carry the state by hook or by crook, continuing to count “votes” until they get the numbers they want:
If all the votes are added up in PA, Trump is going to lose. That’s why he’s working overtime to subtract as many votes as possible from this process.
For the record, he’s 0-6 against us in court. We’ve protected voting rights. Now, ignore the noise—vote!https://t.co/mN8t6TDud7
— Josh Shapiro (@JoshShapiroPA) October 31, 2020
The Democrats have also warned the television networks against calling the election for President Trump tonight, regardless of where the vote stands. That is to make sure the Democrats have time to find, or manufacture, more votes in the states where they are close, and to pursue lawsuits.
Philadelphia is a notorious haven for voter fraud. In past cycles, there have been Philadelphia precincts that recorded 100% turnout with a virtually unanimous Democratic vote. I think that can be explained only by the assumption that at some point, when there are no Republicans around–sometimes Republican poll watchers have literally been kicked off the premises–Democrats have filled out empty ballots and run them through the machines until they reach the number of ballots on the voter rolls.
So I don’t doubt that the Democrats will be able to pad their legitimate vote total in Pennsylvania. The question is whether they can pad it enough. On yesterday’s phone call, senior Trump campaign officials said that according to their model, Joe Biden enters election day with a 750,000 ballot head start in early voting. Their model projects that there are 2.6 million likely Trump voters, and 1.5 million likely Biden voters, left to cast their ballots today. They project that President Trump will carry Election Day voting by more than one million votes. If that is correct, Trump would win the state by more than 250,000 votes.
I doubt that there is any way the Democrats can make up that margin by any combination of pre-Election Day and post-Election Day shenanigans. But the model could well be optimistic; intuitively, I think it is. If Trump’s margin is within, say, 20,000 votes, could election fraud swing Pennsylvania to the Democrats? I fear that it could.