Election-Eve Positivity

Here are three disparate observations, the common denominator being optimism.

First: The polls are shifting in the last days before the election, just as they did in 2016. From Townhall, “If New Batch of Polls are Correct, Trump Will Soar Past 300 Electoral Votes.” Check out the polls cited there. They include Michigan (Trump 48/46), Pennsylvania (Trump 49/47), Wisconsin (Trump 50/49), Florida (Trump 49/45), and so on. We are at the point where polls are pretty much meaningless, but I don’t think it is coincidental that 2020 is just about a carbon copy of 2016. Most “mainstream” pollsters gave Biden a big lead early, I think for the purpose of aiding Democratic fundraising and discouraging Republicans, and then, in the last days before the election, they show the race tightening to within the margin of error–I suspect because they have changed their weighting of responses–so that no matter what happens, they can’t be “wrong.”

Second: I was on a call this afternoon with senior representatives of the Trump campaign. They appear to be confident of victory. They went through the early voting in each swing state, comparing Biden’s pre-election day lead with Hillary’s early voting lead. They also compared Biden’s early-vote lead with the margin they expect President Trump to rack up tomorrow. If their model is right, Trump will win.

Of course, we all know not to trust models; but still, the Democrats’ anxiety suggests that they may be looking at similar calculations. On the call, the campaign officials talked about the Democrats “Red Mirage” plan that I wrote about earlier today. They claim to know that the Democrats are already, among other things, preparing television ads to address the likelihood that as of tomorrow night, Trump appears to have been re-elected.

Third: I have always been a fan of Marco Rubio. Last night in Miami, he warmed up the crowd for President Trump. It is fun to watch, as Marco sounds some of his favorite (and my favorite) themes. In the last minute and a half, he takes on socialism:

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