There will be plenty of commentary about what looks to be the Democrats’ sweep of the Georgia runoff elections. Scott has already provided an insightful take.
However, I think the most concise analysis came a week before the election from my Georgia source, a well-placed Republican in that state. He told me:
In a 50/50 state where some percentage of Republicans are refusing to vote because they think their vote won’t count, it’s not hard to figure out what will happen.
My source correctly predicted the outcome of the Georgia vote in November, as well. He based his prediction that Joe Biden would edge out President Trump on comments from some traditional Republican voters. They told him they wouldn’t vote for Trump because they are unhappy with his performance regarding the coronavirus.
My source based his prediction that both Republican candidates would lose the runoff on comments from Trump voters. They told him they didn’t think their vote would count.
Thus, in both elections, some percentage of Republicans didn’t support the party. In November, it was a some portion of the traditionally conservative segment. In January, it was some portion of the Trumpian segment.
It’s one thing to lose votes because a president is perceived as not performing well. It’s another to lose votes because that president causes voters to believe, stupidly, that their votes won’t count. The former is unfortunate. The latter is heinous.