Yesterday, I posted a report by a well-placed Republican source about the run-off elections in Georgia, his home state. I followed up with my source by asking two questions. First, are the attacks on Raphael Warnock’s leftism and the scandalous way he ran a camp resonating? Second, is the controversy over the stimulus bill a factor in the race?
My source graciously answered both questions and provided a summation of the race, as he sees it:
On Warnock’s leftism, no it’s not resonating. I think the term “socialist” and “radical” have been thrown around so often over the last few years, they have lost their bite. In my view, the campaigns and PACs are running an “inside baseball” campaign with messaging so specific (“court packing” and other terms most voters don’t even understand) that voters don’t know which way is up.
Also, Warnock is warm and likable in his 30 second commercials. They literally have a commercial about how he loves puppies. It’s hard to label someone you think looks nice as Fidel Castro.
The camp, his ex-wife on video saying he’s a good actor, etc, are all likely washed out by the media’s refusal to cover them. They are breathlessly obsessed over whether Loeffler will call Biden “President Elect”, and not concerned with Warnock’s scandals and America-hating ideology.
Georgia has the highest black population in the country at 32%, so identity politics is also alive and well. Ossoff has a level of talent in that he is well spoken, but he also comes off as smug to me and others I have talked to. Perdue, for some reason, refused to debate him, so a few weeks ago Ossoff debated an empty podium—a strategic blunder in my view.
On my way to work this morning, I heard a fresh commercial about Warnock supporting stimulus and Loeffler “refusing to take a stand”, so it’s getting out there, but hard to know what’s getting traction at this point. There are also billboards on the highways saying “Loeffler and Perdue stole from you and your family” referring to stimulus.
In the end, I think Georgia is a 50/50 state right now after massive population growth over the past 10 years. We know in 2018 those who had moved here in the previous 5 years voted 2-1 for Abrams.
We have an absurdly generous film tax credit here, where we pay Hollywood 30 cents on the dollar to make movies here, and these policies, along with failing economies in blue states, have caused significant population growth. So, in a 50/50 state where some percentage of Republicans are refusing to vote because they think their vote won’t count, it’s not hard to figure out what will happen.