This Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies/NBC poll has lots of interesting data, which generally seem consistent with other recent surveys. You can see all the results at the link. I want to note just a few highlights.
First, these numbers reflect the overall popularity of certain people and institutions:
Americans are a surly bunch. It’s hard to be popular. I think the following numbers are more revealing: a large majority of Americans don’t want either Joe Biden or Donald Trump to run for president:
For once, I agree with the majority. But there is a key difference: the Democrats are stuck with Joe Biden, an incumbent but unpopular and senile president. Whereas we Republicans, happily, are not stuck with the massively unpopular Donald Trump. This poll finds a virtual dead heat–as primary races go–between Trump and Ron DeSantis:
In a general election race, that would be a meaningful lead. But primary voters shift their allegiance easily. Trump naturally leads now, due to name recognition, party loyalty following his successful term as president, and anger over the Democrats’ partisan legal attacks. Given those factors, it is surprising that his lead isn’t greater.
Remember when Ed Muskie had the presidential nomination virtually sewn up? Or Howard Dean? Primary voters change allegiance easily among candidates of whom, in general, they approve. That is why primary polls are so volatile. This year, Republicans have a rare opportunity to run a new, young candidate who is not hated by 50% or more of general election voters, against a weak, senile, discredited incumbent. I think it is almost inconceivable that the Republican Party will blow the opportunity.
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