If this poll is any guide, Elizabeth Warren could be the underdog in her race for re-election:
The poll also asked several questions about Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is seeking reelection in 2024. Warren’s approval among those surveyed was 49% approving, 44% disapproving, and 7% unsure. When asked about a hypothetical head-to-head with former Republican Governor Charlie Baker, 49% of those surveyed indicated they would support Baker for U.S. Senate, while only 34% would support Warren.
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Looking at the cross tabs, Republicans seem to coalesce behind Baker (79%) in a way that Democrats do not around Warren (56%), and Baker leads with independent/unenrolled voters 2-1 at 57-26%,” noted Craney.
Of course, Baker hasn’t declared for the seat, and has been coy about his future plans. Currently he is running the NCAA, but not many politicians pass on a Senate seat they think they can win.
No doubt vast amounts of money can be mobilized on behalf of Warren, but she and Baker are both known commodities, which will limit the impact of the Democrats’ big bucks. And it is rather shocking (if this poll is not an outlier) that a two-term senator rates only 34% support in the hypothetical matchup.
Republicans have a structural advantage in the Senate, since there are more red states than blue states. The Democrats have been able to neutralize this advantage by running fake moderates, often against ill-chosen Republican candidates. Thus they have been able to steal a number of Senate seats in states they should not be able to carry. If the GOP can pick up a Senate seat in Massachusetts, it will be a huge plus in the effort to take working control of that body. Never mind that Baker may be, in some respects, a squish. For Massachusetts to be represented in the Senate by a Republican would be great.
