The New York Times covers looming U.S. strikes on Iran:
The rapid buildup of U.S. forces in the Middle East has progressed to the point that President Trump has the option to take military action against Iran as soon as this weekend, administration and Pentagon officials said, leaving the White House with high-stakes choices about pursuing diplomacy or war.
President Trump has been trying to negotiate with the mullahs over Iran’s nuclear program, in search, as always, of a deal.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly demanded that Iran give up its nuclear program, including agreeing not to enrich any more uranium.
That isn’t going to happen with the current Iranian government in charge. The mullahs are obviously stalling:
Many administration officials have expressed skepticism about the prospects of reaching a diplomatic deal with Tehran. The indirect talks on Tuesday in Geneva ended with what Iran’s foreign minister said was agreement on a “set of guiding principles.” U.S. officials said the two sides made progress but added that big gaps remain.
I see no point in negotiation with the mullahs. Any agreement they might make with regard to nuclear weapons would be insincere and meaningless. I hate to admit it, but the Times is right about this:
But unlike the U.S.-Israeli assault last June, Mr. Trump’s objectives now are less clear.
The only objective that makes sense, in my opinion, is enabling the Iranian people to effectuate regime change. Bombing for the sake of knocking out nuclear installations (again) or other military facilities would, in my opinion, achieve little. The regime needs to go.
The problem is that bombing is unlikely to achieve that goal. History shows, I think, that toppling a government without committing troops, no matter how unpopular that government may be, is likely to prove impossible. As long as Iran’s army supports the mullahs and is willing to shoot protesters–which we know is the case in Iran–bombing isn’t going to bring about real change.
I would love to be proved wrong, but it appears to me that we are in a situation where we have been negotiating for something we don’t really want, a worthless undertaking by the mullahs with regard to weapons, while marshaling a great deal of military force that, however powerful in its own terms, will not prove capable of bringing about the downfall of the mullahs, the only objective we should be working toward.
Events, in any event, are moving toward a climax of some sort, and we should know more in a matter of days.
