We last checked in on incumbent Texas Senator Ted Cruz’s race against Bobby O’Rourke in “Query the Kavanaugh effect (2).” The most recent poll at that time showed Cruz with a 9-point lead (54-45). Since that post a New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters surveyed the electorate during the period October 8-11, entirely in the aftermath of the Kavanaugh confirmation. It shows Cruz with an 8-point lead (51-43), within the previous poll’s margin of error.
It wasn’t easy for the Times/Siena poll locate its sample of 800 likely voters. The poll made 51,983 calls in search of those 800 likely voters.
Bobby O’Rourke has ignited a mania among Democrats and their media adjunct. He is the greatest thing since…well, since Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis. Politico’s Playbook reported over the weekend on the financial reflection of Bobby mania (sources are linked):
THIS. IS. BONKERS. DALLAS MORNING NEWS’ TODD GILLMAN and TOM BENNING: “Beto O’Rourke raised $38.1 million in last three months, smashing all records in bid to oust Ted Cruz”: “Rep. Beto O’Rourke raised an astonishing $38.1 million in three months, as Democrats in Texas and nationwide showered him with donations for his bid to oust Sen. Ted Cruz.
“The haul smashed previous records for a U.S. Senate contest, and assures that the hard fought race, already the nation’s costliest, remains on top of the 2018 list. O’Rourke’s haul is more than triple the $12 million that Cruz said he raised from July through September. Combined, the rivals have raised roughly $86 million but the challenger’s tally of $61.2 million vastly eclipses the incumbent’s $24.9 million.” DMN.
— IMPORTANT NUGGET: “ActBlue, the online Democratic fund-raising platform, makes it easier than ever for candidates to collect small sums from many people, and to prompt supporters for recurring donations. O’Rourke has brought in at least $25 million that way this year, and based on the latest tally, likely far more.”
REPUBLICANS have nothing like ActBlue, and it’s bludgeoning candidates across the country.
BUT, THE REALITY … FiveThirtyEight rates the Texas Senate race Likely Republican and gives O’Rourke a 23 percent chance of winning. The forecast[.]
Reality bites, but reality includes the Democrats’ big bucks and comprehensive mania.