Last night Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante announced that he will file as a California Gubernatorial candidate. Presumably this will open the floodgates for other Democrats, like Loretta Sanchez. Now that the facade of Democratic unity has cracked, it is hard to see how Davis can survive the recall vote.
Who will be elected in his place is another matter. There are a lot more Democrats than Republicans in California, but Republicans will presumably be more motivated to turn out for the recall, so those factors may more or less neutralize one another. The next question is how many strong candidates there are from each party on the ballot. Currently there are considerably more Republicans, raising the likelihood that they will fragment the vote and allow a Democrat (like Bustamante) to win. Here is where, in my opinion, Arnold comes in. Unlike the other Republicans, he has the potential to swamp the field if he runs a strong campaign. And if he plays his immigrant background right and makes a strong play for the Hispanic vote, who knows?
Hope springs eternal.
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