Tomorrow is the Big Day

There doesn’t seem to be any last-minute news out of California, nor are there any new poll data. News stories consistently say the race is tightening as a result of the Democrats’ blizzard of accusations against Arnold, but the only evidence for that is the Knight-Ridder poll that we discussed here. The Knight-Ridder data are equivocal.
The San Francisco Chronicle offers this second-hand and even more inconclusive information about the parties’ internal polling:
“Operatives for both Republican and Democratic sides said that on the question of the recall itself, the polls were down to the wire by Monday.
“Republican sources said their tracking showed the ‘yes’ on recall had taken a dive over the weekend as stories broke about Schwarzenegger’s troubles, though the numbers had rebounded to 51-53 percent by Monday. Davis’ camp insisted that its overnight tracking polls showed a statistical dead heat on the recall question, with ‘yes’ on the recall now below 50 percent for the first time.”
I have no idea what the parties’ polls really show, but my guess is that nothing has changed. Davis’s disapproval numbers are monumental; recall proponents are more motivated than recall opponents; and there is no way Bustamante beats Schwarzenegger. So Arnold wins.
By the way, the Chronicle deserves a little credit for this story: “Jews in Schwarzenegger’s hometown dismiss Hitler flap as ‘election propaganda.'”
The AP report says: “The president of the Jewish community in Graz…said community members find the allegation of Schwarzenegger’s admiration for Hitler ridiculous. ‘No one took it seriously,’ Gerald Sonnenschein said while leading a reporter through the building that houses a modern, glass-domed synagogue on the banks of the Mur River. ‘I know that he has always been pro-Jewish.'”


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