Today’s Rasmussen Tracking poll has President Bush leading John Kerry by a single point. The closeness of the race is manifested in the principal swing states: In Florida, Rasmussen has the President up by four points. He’s up by one in Ohio, and Michigan and Pennsylvania are dead even.
Some of my optimistic friends ask me whether I really expect the election to be close. I think it will be very close indeed.
UPDATE: If you want optimism, Dafydd ab Hugh is your man. Here’s Dafydd’s take:
Bush will win — and it will be by more than five percent.