Good news on the polling front: The Fox News poll released today has President Bush ahead by seven points among likely voters, 49% to 42%.
For those who haven’t followed the polls closely, Fox’s survey has not been particularly favorable to the President. Their last poll, done two weeks ago, had Bush up by only two. The internals don’t appear to be available, but Fox didn’t just oversample Republicans, as they show independents going for Bush by a surprising 52% to 34% margin.
Some possible explanations:
45% of respondents believe they will pay higher taxes if Kerry is elected; 12%say lower taxes.
A surprising 52% say they would be “very concerned” about changing Presidents at this time, given the unrest in the world. Another 14% are “somewhat concerned.” Especially surprising is that 50% of Democrats say they are “concerned.”
By 69% to 24%, respondents say the war on terror is a “real war,” not just a figure of speech. And by 61% to 25%, they believe President Bush will fight the war more aggressively. Is it possible that a majority of Americans believe that we are in a war, but will vote for the less aggressive candidate? If so, the national character has undergone a sudden transformation.
67% of respondents say John Kerry is a liberal. They didn’t ask how many think he is a flip-flopper, but by 52% to 31%, respondents say Bush has stronger convictions.
UPDATE: The Washington Post tracking poll has President Bush up by five points.
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