Let’s Have Some Optimism

The Washington Post tracking poll has President Bush up by six points, 51% to 45%. The Post explains its methodology here. It’s pretty interesting, actually. The Post uses a modified “weighting” system in which responses are adjusted to a pre-determined turnout assumption. But that assumption is pretty flexible: party affiliation is adjusted to be within three points of the actual, average party affiliation as recorded in exit polls over the last three elections. I suppose it’s possible that this formula could favor Republicans, but it’s hard to see how. So I take some comfort from these numbers.


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