I’ve written before that I think Democratic prospects for retaking the House of Representatives are likely overstated in many quarters, because, while it is easy to talk of a “Democratic tide,” it is not so easy to identify the specific races that the Dems will win to gain a net 15 seats. Further to that point, this morning’s New York Times headlines: “For Democrats’ Hopes, Less Promise in New York.”
[J]ust a few months ago, Democrats envisioned significant gains in New York, perhaps picking up as many as four seats, possibly even five. But that goal now seems increasingly remote….
By the Times’ count, it now appears that the Dems may be lucky to pick up a single seat in New York. The Times attributes that to local consitions and the specifics of the New York races, but, of course, that’s the point.