Are all the polls screwy?

The White House is pointing out that the polls used by major news organizations to show that voters strongly favor Democrats this year all employ samples in which voter id does not reflect historical norms. Specifically, in polls by USA Today/Gallup, CBS/NYTimes, ABC/WP, Newsweek, AP/Ipsos, Time, and Pew, Democrats exceeded Republicans by margins greater than those that existed in any recent election. While this may reflect a sudden shift in the electorate, it’s not likely that the electorate consists of significantly more Democrats than it did in past years when the Dems did well. Ken Mehlman made the same point yesterday at the American Spectator breakfast.
But what about all of those polls by Rasmussen, et al that show Democrats ahead in so many of the key races in individual jurisdictions? As John said, “the polls can’t all be screwy.”


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