Advantage Obama

There are a bunch of new poll results from New Hampshire, all of which were taken prior to yesterday’s debates. On the Democratic side nearly every poll puts Obama ahead of Clinton. Moreover, a Rasmussen poll with a sample size of 1,200 (more than twice the size of any others) has Clinton trailing by 39-27. I believe Clinton can survive a defeat in New Hampshire, but it might be difficult to survive a defeat of that magnitude.
On the Republican side, McCain leads in nearly all of the recent polls. However, in Rasmussen’s survey, McCain is up by only an insignificant 32-30 margin over Romney.
I’m speculating that, overall, the Rasmussen results reflect a trend among independent voters to vote for Obama in the Democratic contest rather than for McCain in the Republican one.


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