Fox News says that Hillary Clinton will win the popular vote in the Texas Democratic primary. Coupled with her win in Ohio, she’s had a massive night. So where do things stand now?
Obama will point out that he has won many more contests and, more importantly, has accumulated more delegates through the primary and caucus process. Clinton will counter that she’s won most of the primaries in the major states, notably California, Ohio, New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Texas.
But the math is such that what really matters is how the super-delegates will vote. And what will matter most to the super-delegates is the state of play in seven weeks and beyond — the vote in Pennsylvania, in Florida and Michigan (if they have do-overs), and how Clinton and Obama stack up with John McCain in the polls this summer.
Other things being equal, the super-delegates may defer to the pre-existing delegate count. But if, come decision time, Clinton’s current standing is superior to Obama’s, they are more likely to take their cue from that reality than from what happened months earlier in places like Iowa, North Dakota, South Carolina, and Vermont.
When we recall all the twists and turns in this race during the past two months, it seems foolish to speculate about the comparative popularity of Obama and Clinton two months or more from now. Yet, astonishingly, everything probably comes down to that.
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