What about Georgia?

When I speculated yesterday that the Democrats will pick up seven Senate seats — bringing their count to 58 — I did not include Georgia on the pick-up list. Nor did there seem to be much reason to include it. Incumbent Republican Senator Chambliss leads Democratic challenger Jim Martin by approximately 4 percentage points.

Georgia, though, is a run-off state, and there is a third-party candidate (a libertarian) in the race. Since Chambliss is not polling at 50 percent, there might well be a run-off in his future.

In the event of a run-off, the Democrats will be able to focus their big guns on Georgia. For example, Obama, assuming he wins, would likely campaign for the Democrat. Democratic money would also pour in. For their part, as I understand it, the Republicans don’t have much money left.

On the other hand, Chambliss might well be in a position accurately to portray himself as a one-man barrier to left-wing rule on a grand scale. This, I imagine, will be a powerful argument in a state that remains essentially conservative.

I’ll speculate, therefore, that if Chambliss falls short of 50 percent but runs several points ahead of his challenger, the Republicans will hold Georgia.

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