Regressing Almost to the Mean

We’ve been following Barack Obama’s approval ratings on Rasmussen Reports; there are daily ups and downs, of course, but the trend is consistent: down. Rasmussen’s “approval index” is the difference between Obama’s “strong approval” and “strong disapproval” numbers. Today it’s down to its lowest level, at +1:


Obama’s overall approval rating among likely voters is 54 percent. His “100 days” press conference and accompanying pageant of media adulation apparently had no impact on voters. It won’t be long, I suspect, before Rasmussen’s approval index goes negative.


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