Blanche Lincoln continues to be the most “endangered” of all Senate Democrats up for re-election in 2010. The latest Rasmussen poll shows her trailing all of her potential Republican opponents, and she trails the probable frontrunner, Republican state senator Gilbert Baker, by 47 to 41 percent (our friend Tom Cotton decided not to run). According to Politico, this result is consistent with what other polls have found.
To make matters worse, 36 percent of Arkansas voters view Lincoln “very unfavorably.” Only 19 percent have a “very favorable” opinion of her.
Lincoln’s decisive vote to bring the Senate Democrats’ health care reform bill to the floor for debate surely will not help her in Arkansas. 56 percent of Arkansas voters say they “strongly oppose” that plan.
Lincoln’s vote on the actual legislation — as opposed to whether to debate it — should tell us how she reads the situation back home. If Lincoln votes against the bill, it probably means she thinks she can win next year, not an outrageous assumption if she is only trailing by six percentage points now. If Lincoln votes “yes,” it probably means she is resigned to not being in the Senate after 2010, and has been promised a desirable post by the Obama administration.
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