Bad news for Harry Reid

The early voting numbers in Nevada do not bode well for Harry Reid. The numbers come from the state’s two most populated counties — Washoe County (Reno) and Clark County (Las Vegas). Together, they are home to 86 percent of Nevada’s voters.
According to Politico, in Washoe County, 47 percent of early voters so far have been Republicans, while 40 percent have been Democrats. Voter registration, though, is evenly split at 39 percent for both parties. Thus, Republicans have turned out in disproportionately high numbers, to date.
In Clark County, Democrats make up 46 percent of the county’s registered voters; Republicans just 33 percent. Of the voters who have cast ballots so far, 46 percent are Democrats and 39 percent are Republicans. Again, Republicans are punching above their weight.
These numbers show that the Dems are actually turning out the vote in proportion to their registration. But the Republicans are significantly outperforming their registration and, in doing so, outperforming the Democrats.
Apparently, it is independents who are not showing up early to vote. This probably makes sense, as they are not the target of either party’s apparatus.
Polls show that Nevada’s independents strongly favor Sharron Angle. Thus, the conventional wisdom is that Reid may have to outperform the Democrats’ registration advantage this year in order to prevail. The early numbers suggest that, due to the high level of enthusiasm among Republicans, Reid is underperforming that advantage.


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