What’s up in Virginia?

A brand new Washington Post poll has President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 7 points, 51 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 points.

The Post’s results make little sense. Obama carried the state in 2008 by 6.3 points. That year, according to the Post, independent voters divided evenly. In the Post’s poll, they now favor Obama by 10 points (51-41). Is Obama really as strong in Virginia today, and much stronger among Independents, than he was in the heady days of “hope and change?”

If so, why? According to the same Post poll, twice as many Virginians believe the country is on the wrong track as believe it is on the right track.

Obama may be leading in Virginia, but I’d be shocked if his lead (if any) approaches 7 points.


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