Last week, when a poll by a Democratic outfit showed Republican Pete Hoekstra narrowly leading incumbent Debbie Stabenow in the Michigan Senate race, I cautioned that we should wait for more polling before expressing any optimism about this race. Now comes a poll from Mitchell Research that gives Hoekstra a similarly narrow lead.
The Mitchell poll has Hoekstra nominally ahead, 45-44. The earlier poll, by FMW, had Hoekstra ahead 48-46. Both polls surveyed more than 1,000 likely voters. Combined, they surveyed 3,000. However, a poll by the Detroit News, taken after the FMW poll but before Mitchell’s, has Stabenow leading 48-40. The Detroit News surveyed 600 likely voters.
The Mitchell poll also contains good news for Mitt Romney. It shows him tied with President Obama, 47-47. A poll by Mitchell from earlier in August had Obama leading Romney by 5 points.
In other “Big Ten” Senate polling news, the Columbus Dispatch shows a deadlock in the Ohio Senate race between leftist incumbent Sherrod Brown and Republican challenger Josh Mandel, a “Power Line Pick Six” candidate. The Dispatch surveyed more than 1,700 likely voters. Of the five reported polls taken in August of this race, three show a virtual deadheat, while two show Brown in the lead (by 10 points, per PPP, and 7 points, per Quinnipiac).
At a minimum, then, it’s fair to say that the Michigan and Ohio Senate races both are in play. And in Wisconsin, as we have noted, Tommy Thompson has a nice lead over Democrat Tammy Baldwin.
As for Missouri, well, it’s not part of the Big Ten.