More Evidence For the Kavanaugh Effect

In one sense, the generic Congressional preference poll numbers don’t mean much. Only a race-by-race analysis sheds much light on how next month’s election is likely to turn out. Still, the generic ballot is a barometer of public sentiment, and therefore it may be significant that Rasmussen Reports now finds the parties even by that measure:

With less than a month to Election Day, the Generic Congressional Ballot is now dead even.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Another 45% would opt for the Republican.

Historically, Democrats have usually underperformed on election day, compared with their generic poll standing. Normally, one would expect Republicans to do very well if they are even, or close to even, on the generic ballot. The big caveat here is that the Democrats are far better financed than the Republicans and have poured unprecedented amounts of money into the 30 or 40 districts that will determine which party holds the majority.

Last week, 47% of voters said they would choose the Democratic candidate while 42% said they would choose the Republican. It is unclear whether the sudden jump to a tie vote is a reflection of the anger surrounding the Kavanaugh confirmation process, but we will continue to watch this in the weeks ahead.

If we count the Democrats’ repellent mob actions as part of the “Kavanaugh confirmation process,” I am pretty sure that is what accounts for the movement in the polls. Let’s hope it continues.


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