The Prospects for Trump, 18 Months Out

Right now if I had to drop a wager, I’d bet on Trump’s re-election next year. Yes, his overall approval rating remains below 50 percent in most surveys (though stand by on this), but Obama’s approval rating was below 50 percent for much of his first term, and he was re-elected anyway.

Moreover, Trump’s highest approval ratings are for his handling of the economy, where he reaches 60 percent in some surveys. And guess what is the most important issue for most voters? Trump’s rating on the economy is the one to watch heading into the election next year. If the economy holds up, he’ll beat just about any Democrat. That’s an important if, because there are some warning signs flashing about the economy, but that’s a subject for a separate post. And something else—a foreign crisis?—could go wrong.

I apply a heavy discount to the Rasmussen online polls that have always been more favorable to Trump than other surveys (though Rasmussen has often been right in its election calls), but today there is a survey out from Zogby—an outfit by no means sympathetic to Trump—that shows Trump’s general approval rating topping 50 percent. And some of the internals of the polls are very striking, especially majority support for Trump among millennials, and rising support among Hispanics and blacks:

At the moment President Trump’s approval rating is higher than Obama’s at the same point in his presidency—Zogby Analytics had President Obama at 48% approve/52% disapprove on 05/09/2011. . .

President Trump scored well with younger Millennial voters aged 18-29 (51% approve/46% disapprove) and Generation Z voters aged 18-24 (49% approve/51% disapprove). The President also received a good approval rating with voters aged 25-54; he received a majority job approval rating from older Millennial voters aged 25-34 (53% approve/43% disapprove) and middle aged voters aged 35-54 (59% approve/38% disapprove). Among the oldest voters surveyed-aged 65+, Trump’s disapproval rating was the strongest (59% disapprove/41% approve). As per usual, the president did well with men (58% approve/40% disapprove) and he improved his support with women (44% approve/54% disapprove). . .

Another group the president is doing better with is Independents, who have recently changed their tune about Trump’s job performance. . . The president also made strides with college educated voters (55% approve/45% disapprove), and saw support increase slightly with non-college educated voters (47% approve/50% disapprove). . .

Trump’s approval rating has improved with minorities—27% of African Americans and 45% of Hispanics approve of the president—both very good numbers historically for Trump.

If these last two numbers are reflected at the ballot box next year, it is curtains for Democrats. But here’s the key chart from the survey:

No wonder Democrats are in panic mode.