The Virginia race [UPDATED from time to time]

I’m getting ready to watch Game 6 of the World Series. That’s where my main attention will be for as long as the game is competitive. Judging by past games, that might be four hours.

As for the Virginia race, I’ll be checking in on it from time to time, of course.

Early indications are that it will be close but that Youngkin has a small edge (which is what lots of people have been saying lately). This view is based on the fact that, in the early returns, Youngkin is running a little bit ahead of where he is in a model that has the race 50-50. In other words, he is doing a little better so far than what he needs to do to win. And this is said to be the case in a range of counties that have reported results.

However, it’s way to early to draw any firm conclusions about who will win. That’s how it looks to me, at any rate.

UPDATE: Here’s some good, seemingly important news from Henry Olsen:

Loudoun [County] has now clearly included its early vote in its total, as I thought, and the news is fabulous for Youngkin! He’s trailing by only 5.6% in a county Northam won by 20%, and with 15 precincts left that margin should shrink more. Ground Zero for CRT producing for Glenn.

UPDATE: Political analyst Dave Wasserman says “to my eye, we’re on track for a 2-5 point Youngkin win.” I’ll take it.

Wasserman is also calling the Lt. Governor’s race for Republican Winsome Sears, an African-American woman.

UPDATE: Wasserman may be underestimating the size of Youngkin’s margin even at the high end of his range. Right now (9:30 in the East), Youngkin is up by 9.5 points with 74 percent of the expected vote in.

In the past, the late-counted vote in Virginia has heavily favored Democrats. But even allowing for possible fraud, it might not be easy for McAuliffe to erase the better part of a 9.5 point deficit.

There’s a lot of focus on Youngkin’s showing in Northern Virginia, where he cut deeply into traditional Democratic margins, and that may, indeed, be where he won the race. But keep in mind that Youngkin was able to maintain large, Trumpy-style margins in rural Virginia, despite not being a strongly pro-Trump candidate.

UPDATE: McAuliffe has erased more than half of the lead Youngkin had about an hour ago. The lead is now 4 points with 90 percent of the expected vote counted.

Wasserman has now called the race for Youngkin, though, and it looks like his earlier call of a 2 to 5 point margin was a good one.

FINAL UPDATE: Nearly all of the major news outlets have now called the race for Youngkin.

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