Monetary policy will always be a difficult “black box” problem, and in any case it is always reactive, which is one reason why hard money is likely a better system for monetary and price stability over time (although Milton Friedman repeatedly schooled me on why this is wrongheaded). In any case, all of the talk about achieving a “soft landing” in the current Fed tightening cycle looks foolishly optimistic given has fast the current tightening cycle is occurring. Paul Volcker is likely lighting up one of his trademark huge cigars somewhere in the afterlife and thinking, “Dude!”
Chaser, from John Mauldin:
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