Screenwriter William Goldman’s famous line about Hollywood—”No one knows anything”—applies fully to the confusing scene in Russia right now. And let’s not go further without also bringing up for the millionth time Churchill’s description of Russia as “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.”
There’s a sentence in one of the Wall Street Journal‘s many articles about the matter today that reminds of this: “The full story behind why Prigozhin launched—then stunningly halted—his revolt isn’t yet known.” One reason for this is the scarcity of western European or American reporters inside Russia who have developed good sources and understand the country. In this regard one must wonder whether it is a mere coincidence that the American reporter most fluent in Russian and with intimate knowledge of the country—Evan Gershkovich—was arrested and jailed several weeks ago. (If you have a long Cold War memory, re-run the Nick Danilov arrest in Moscow in 1986, just weeks before the climactic Reagan-Gorbachev summit in Iceland.) Joe Biden has been strangely quiet about the matter, and while there is one obvious explanation for that, it is also possible that our intelligence agencies didn’t have any hint it was going to happen, or did know it, and Biden’s team didn’t know just what, if anything, to do or say about it.
Lots of aspects of this “coup” or “insurrection” don’t make a lot of sense, unless . . . it was an exercise from the old Communist playbook going back to the Stalinist purges of the 1930s of setting up a “controlled opposition” as a means of smoking out dissidents and disloyal party members so they could be eliminated before a threat grew. And even legitimate protest groups, like Solidarity in Poland in the early 1980s or Charter 77 in Czechoslovakia, were always quickly infiltrated (kind of like the FBI and the Proud Boys, Weather Underground, etc), and divided, disrupted, or rolled up.
Maybe it is as it seems on the surface, and things are chaotic in Russia, and there is a lot of friction between the Wagner Group and the Russian military, though I’d be surprised if Putin is completely ignorant of Machiavelli’s teaching on the defects of relying on mercenary arms. There’s also speculation that Prigozhin might have made off with a nuclear weapon or two from one of military sites his forces briefly overran. Otherwise he better have a food taster and avoid tall buildings in his “exile” in Belarus.
In the meantime, be highly skeptical of every “news” or “analysis” story you read in the media. No one knows anything.
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