Spain is holding a national election today, and polls indicate right of center parties are in the lead. We should start getting results fairly soon. We’ll update this post as we get some actual vote counts and exit polls.
In the meantime, cosmopolitan election-watcher extraordinaire Henry Olsen has a handy guide on Twitter to Spain’s political landscape you may wish to take in:
Happy Spanish Election Day! Yes, today Spain votes in national elections. Here’s your guide on the field, the process, and how to watch like a pro. Spain has a bi-cameral system, but ultimate power rests in the 350-member Congress of Deputies.
Spain allocates deputies by population across 52 constituencies, which then elect deputies in each by proportional representation. The largest is Madrid, with 37 seats; the smallest are Melilla and Cueta, which each elect 1. In those cities, it’s first-past-the-post.
This system favors larger parties because there small constituencies that elect between 3 and 6 deputies. It also favors regionalist parties that run only in a specific area in Spain. This makes it hard for a party to get a majority unless it gets 40%+.
Spain has a multi-party system, as you would expect from a process like this. The 2 large parties are the center-right Popular Party (PP) and the center-left Socialist Labor Party (PSOE). PP is leading in polls with around 35%, while PSOE is getting about 28%.
Two smaller national parties or alliances flank each major party. Sumar is an alliance of left-wing parties; it is polling 11-2%. Vox is a national conservative right-ring party; it is polling 13%. Regional parties will dominate in Catalonia and the Basque Country.
The Canaries Coalition will seat a seat or 2 in the Canary Islands, and regional parties could win seats in Galicia, Navarre, and areas of rural Spain.
Polls close at 8pm local time, 2pm ET. 2.5 million people voted by mail, the highest ever. This is likely because Spaniards are on vacation and to beat the heat. Turnout at the polls, which does not include mail ballots. is up as of 2pm local time in most regions of Spain.
The big question is whether PP and Vox together can get the 176 seats needed for a majority. The keys will be whether Vox holds at 13%, which should earn it 30-40 seats, and whether PP can do better than the 35% it is polling.
The pros will be looking at constituency level results since that’s where the seats will be filled. Here’s where to look: Madrid: PP will win at least 15 seats here if the polls are right. 16 gets them close to majority with Vox; 17 is a great sign for them.
Catalonia is historically a bad region for PP because of the legacy of the Spanish Civil War. But if PP can win a single seat in the smaller Catalonian regions of Girona, Gipuzkoa, and Tarragona, it’s a sign they will get the majority.
6 constituencies have battles between PP and the left for a final seat. Watch these (seats PP needs in each for clear majority): Alicante (6), Murica (5), Malaga (5), Las Palmas (4), Balearic Islands (4), Pontevedra (4)
PP and PSOE are also battling for a seat in 4 4-seat constituencies: Leon, Burgos, La Rioja, and Ourense. If PP gets 3 seats in these, the majority is set.
Exit polls should be released shortly after the polls close. Those polls should also contain seat projections with ranges to account for the dynamics listed above.
UPDATE (1): The polls have closed. Bloomberg has reported exit polls projections:
Spanish conservative leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo won the most seats in Sunday’s election and is on track to govern with the support of the far-right group Vox, according to opinion polls.
Feijoo’s People’s Party is set to claim about 150 seats in the 350-strong parliament while Vox will get around 31, according to a survey by GAD3, which was published when voting closed at 8 pm in Madrid. The Socialists were set to win 112 seats.
If Vox and the People’s Party form a coalition, they will have a majority of seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
UPDATE (2): The vote tabulations are not matching up to the exit polls. With about 95% of the vote counted, it appears the prospective People’s Party/Vox coalition will fall just short of the necessary majority to form a solid government. Most likely outcome right now is a hung parliament, with another election in the fall. It is possible either the right-coalition or left-coalition could form a government with the help of small parties.
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